Preseason Rankings
Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-17.6#344
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.1#110
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-12.4#344
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#311
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.8% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 14.8% 28.1% 7.7%
.500 or above in Conference 18.9% 34.6% 10.4%
Conference Champion 5.1% 10.0% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 19.0% 6.6% 25.6%
First Four1.5% 2.6% 0.9%
First Round0.5% 1.1% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 35.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 30 - 20 - 2
Quad 46 - 116 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Jan 02, 2021 316   Grambling St. L 66-70 35%    
  Jan 04, 2021 300   Jackson St. L 64-71 28%    
  Jan 09, 2021 338   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 61-67 30%    
  Jan 11, 2021 348   @ Mississippi Valley W 81-80 54%    
  Jan 16, 2021 343   @ Alabama A&M L 64-68 37%    
  Jan 23, 2021 334   Alcorn St. L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 25, 2021 262   Southern L 63-72 23%    
  Jan 30, 2021 237   @ Texas Southern L 68-84 9%    
  Feb 01, 2021 302   @ Prairie View L 65-77 15%    
  Feb 06, 2021 338   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 08, 2021 348   Mississippi Valley W 84-77 72%    
  Feb 13, 2021 343   Alabama A&M W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 20, 2021 334   @ Alcorn St. L 69-76 28%    
  Feb 22, 2021 262   @ Southern L 60-75 12%    
  Feb 27, 2021 237   Texas Southern L 71-81 21%    
  Mar 01, 2021 302   Prairie View L 68-74 31%    
  Mar 04, 2021 316   @ Grambling St. L 63-73 20%    
  Mar 06, 2021 300   @ Jackson St. L 61-74 15%    
Projected Record 6 - 12 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 3.1 2.7 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 3.9 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.7 3.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.3 0.7 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 1.8 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.5 3.4 0.2 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 5.8 4.2 0.6 12.5 8th
9th 0.4 3.3 6.8 4.2 0.8 0.0 15.4 9th
10th 1.5 3.8 4.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.0 10th
Total 1.5 4.2 7.6 10.9 12.1 12.9 12.1 11.2 8.7 6.9 4.7 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 96.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 88.4% 0.5    0.4 0.1
13-5 70.2% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 53.1% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
11-7 34.4% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1
10-8 18.6% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
9-9 4.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 5.0% 5.0 3.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 32.7% 32.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 31.0% 31.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 18.6% 18.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.5% 17.1% 17.1% 16.0 0.1 0.4
13-5 1.1% 16.2% 16.2% 16.0 0.2 0.9
12-6 2.1% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.2 1.9
11-7 3.1% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.2 2.9
10-8 4.7% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.2 4.5
9-9 6.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 6.7
8-10 8.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 8.5
7-11 11.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.1
6-12 12.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.9
5-13 12.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.8
4-14 12.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.1
3-15 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.9
2-16 7.6% 7.6
1-17 4.2% 4.2
0-18 1.5% 1.5
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%